Will Most Of Humanity Be Infected By The New (COVID-19) Corona Virus?

Will Most Of Humanity Be Infected By The New (COVID-19) Corona Virus?

It is likely that eventually it will become endemic, and most of us will get infected. But one question is super important: How long will it take for that to happen? If it happens in a few months, every hospital will be overwhelmed and people will not be treated for corona virus or other diseases. If it happens that fast, it will be an unprecedented disaster. However, if we do our best in terms of prevention by practicing social distancing, reducing travel, not going to work when we’re sick, we could slow spread of the disease. If the same 60-70% infection of the global population is spread over 3 years, then hospitals don’t get overwhelmed, people can get treated, and we have time to develop a vaccine—it’s a completely different story.The difference between it happening fast or slow is potentially the difference between a 1918 flu level event and a bad flu season level event. We have control over that.

Justin Lessler is an associate professor of Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

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